Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 72580.262158 76734.030281 80892.304886 85364.354868 90034.739965 94765.233718 99915.696670
2025-03-09 65853.134344 72212.445282 78763.258947 86005.917628 93779.256386 101861.772172 110891.244204
2025-03-16 60403.530046 68194.494932 76403.920466 85679.095511 95846.677812 106633.028032 118920.393502
2025-03-23 57266.332988 66229.916109 75852.679671 86918.432521 99258.011461 112560.754832 127951.324590
2025-03-30 54466.690527 64345.500856 75125.836835 87715.022868 101962.431803 117535.411357 135792.133598
2025-04-06 51685.139840 62261.151790 73976.132956 87849.070596 103759.734989 121366.907721 142252.458515
2025-04-13 49146.306593 60285.012591 72795.264627 87801.451113 105222.629743 124719.161748 148093.062684
2025-04-20 47663.816047 59428.795871 72807.737232 89041.022971 108091.627564 129624.319173 155681.784081
2025-04-27 46318.393340 58645.975859 72829.274335 90223.809955 110843.282505 134364.112973 163073.586506
2025-05-04 44778.466712 57547.582960 72405.560911 90816.182546 112850.966350 138207.040932 169410.548651
2025-05-11 43064.597391 56159.005149 71564.310055 90845.194104 114137.223156 141166.835415 174691.724077
2025-05-18 41594.715491 55003.503836 70945.005783 91087.128211 115634.014885 144346.226041 180220.455500
2025-05-25 40093.275478 53769.714327 70202.110020 91162.872441 116932.179307 147312.446660 185547.988004
2025-06-01 39255.829446 53333.275906 70412.325321 92388.133238 119621.637619 151958.109148 192924.177776
2025-06-08 37770.447490 52019.186038 69482.753635 92158.192270 120492.709089 154386.290026 197617.676156
2025-06-15 37117.998699 51741.795921 69826.936912 93497.867788 123292.260139 159163.338621 205188.690870
2025-06-22 36283.816532 51194.479791 69800.783463 94348.298083 125469.715616 163178.725249 211845.436854
2025-06-29 35181.724889 50256.965944 69241.717635 94491.640280 126738.088615 166062.987058 217113.902931
2025-07-06 34055.268752 49248.591338 68556.377984 94441.363293 127736.878120 168598.438708 221949.318413
2025-07-13 33571.547284 49077.474216 68940.416139 95756.340322 130466.241856 173298.684066 229502.254663
2025-07-20 33089.026404 48888.202746 69285.427949 97010.851187 133117.350058 177911.558641 236973.286370
2025-07-27 32375.360740 48360.154947 69163.471722 97639.073423 134954.275434 181500.523740 243173.963329
2025-08-03 31456.751662 47522.308693 68604.596057 97669.839945 136001.497698 184082.001680 248107.315885